BBC : Balance Restored

Climate Changers,

Remember to challenge any piece of media that seems like it's been subject to spin or scepticism.

Here's my go for today. The BBC actually changed an article I requested a correction for, but I'm not really sure if the result is that much better.

Judge for yourselves...

(private email exchange removed 13-may-2008 ja)

ORIGINAL
================

Page last updated at 00:42 GMT, Friday, 4 April 2008 01:42 UK
Global temperatures 'to decrease'
By Roger Harrabin
BBC News environment analyst

Global temperatures this year will be lower than in 2007 due to the cooling effect of the La Nina current in the Pacific, UN meteorologists have said.

The World Meteorological Organization's secretary-general, Michel Jarraud, told the BBC it was likely that La Nina would continue into the summer.

This would mean global temperatures have not risen since 1998, prompting some to question climate change theory.

But experts have also forecast a record high temperature within five years.

Rises 'stalled'

La Nina and El Nino are two great natural Pacific currents whose effects are so huge they resonate round the world.

El Nino warms the planet when it happens; La Nina cools it. This year, the Pacific is in the grip of a powerful La Nina.

It has contributed to torrential rains in Australia and to some of the coldest temperatures in memory in snow-bound parts of China.

Mr Jarraud told the BBC that the effect was likely to continue into the summer, depressing temperatures globally by a fraction of a degree.

This would mean that temperatures have not risen globally since 1998 when El Nino warmed the world.

Watching trends

A minority of scientists question whether this means global warming has peaked and argue the Earth has proved more resilient to greenhouse gases than predicted.

But Mr Jarraud insisted this was not the case and noted that 1998 temperatures would still be well above average for the century.

"When you look at climate change you should not look at any particular year," he said. "You should look at trends over a pretty long period and the trend of temperature globally is still very much indicative of warming.

"La Nina is part of what we call 'variability'. There has always been and there will always be cooler and warmer years, but what is important for climate change is that the trend is up; the climate on average is warming even if there is a temporary cooling because of La Nina."

Adam Scaife, lead scientist for Modelling Climate Variability at the Hadley Centre in Exeter, UK, said their best estimate for 2008 was about 0.4C above the 1961-1990 average, and higher than this if you compared it with further back in the 20th Century.

Mr Scaife told the BBC: "What's happened now is that La Nina has come along and depressed temperatures slightly but these changes are very small compared to the long-term climate change signal, and in a few years time we are confident that the current record temperature of 1998 will be beaten when the La Nina has ended."

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UPDATED VERSION (note : the page date and time has not changed)
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Page last updated at 00:42 GMT, Friday, 4 April 2008 01:42 UK

Global temperatures 'to decrease'
By Roger Harrabin
BBC News environment analyst

Global temperatures will drop slightly this year as a result of the cooling effect of the La Nina current in the Pacific, UN meteorologists have said.

The World Meteorological Organization's secretary-general, Michel Jarraud, told the BBC it was likely that La Nina would continue into the summer.

This would mean global temperatures have not risen since 1998, prompting some to question climate change theory.

But experts say we are still clearly in a long-term warming trend - and they forecast a new record high temperature within five years.

The WMO points out that the decade from 1998 to 2007 was the warmest on record. Since the beginning of the 20th Century, the global average surface temperature has risen by 0.74C.

While Nasa, the US space agency, cites 2005 as the warmest year, the UK's Hadley Centre lists it as second to 1998.

Researchers say the uncertainty in the observed value for any particular year is larger than these small temperature differences. What matters, they say, is the long-term upward trend.

Rises 'stalled'

La Nina and El Nino are two great natural Pacific currents whose effects are so huge they resonate round the world.

El Nino warms the planet when it happens; La Nina cools it. This year, the Pacific is in the grip of a powerful La Nina.

It has contributed to torrential rains in Australia and to some of the coldest temperatures in memory in snow-bound parts of China.

Mr Jarraud told the BBC that the effect was likely to continue into the summer, depressing temperatures globally by a fraction of a degree.

This would mean that temperatures have not risen globally since 1998 when El Nino warmed the world.

Watching trends

A minority of scientists question whether this means global warming has peaked and argue the Earth has proved more resilient to greenhouse gases than predicted.

Animation of El Nino and La Nina effects

But Mr Jarraud insisted this was not the case and noted that 2008 temperatures would still be well above average for the century.

"When you look at climate change you should not look at any particular year," he said. "You should look at trends over a pretty long period and the trend of temperature globally is still very much indicative of warming.

"La Nina is part of what we call 'variability'. There has always been and there will always be cooler and warmer years, but what is important for climate change is that the trend is up; the climate on average is warming even if there is a temporary cooling because of La Nina."

China suffered from heavy snow in January

Adam Scaife, lead scientist for Modelling Climate Variability at the Hadley Centre in Exeter, UK, said their best estimate for 2008 was about 0.4C above the 1961-1990 average, and higher than this if you compared it with further back in the 20th Century.

Mr Scaife told the BBC: "What's happened now is that La Nina has come along and depressed temperatures slightly but these changes are very small compared to the long-term climate change signal, and in a few years time we are confident that the current record temperature of 1998 will be beaten when the La Nina has ended."

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BBC reporting

Please let's be careful not to hang draw and quarter some of the most conscientious science writers out there. RH referred in a story last year to the 5 professors who wrote a critical letter on the IPCC write-up on biofuels. A much larger number of scientists wrote a critical letter over the IPCC's conclusions as to man-made global warming. So on what basis should they refer to those scientists as "a tiny minority", for example? I wouldn't have liked it if the biofuel-sceptic scientists were described as "a tiny minority", and so forth. The "The Editors" feature on BBC reporting on AGW-sceptics seemed a very sensible exercise.

"Influencing" The Change

What I see happened here is you disagreed with what was being reported because it went against your THEORY of climate change caused by humans. So you decided to try and influence a change in an already liberal-biased media so that the news more closely reflects what YOU think.

1- The BBC has every right to quote skeptics, it is only responsible journalism to show both sides of an argument, including the one that YOU may not agree with. You can't censor the media into only showing your side because you think that the other side gets too much play

2-While in your mind, you are absolutely convinced that climate change is the result of human intervention, it still remains a theory, not a proven fact, therefore the media is OBLIGATED to treat human-caused climate change as just that, a theory.

3-You called the science of climatology as a science in it's "infancy"...If the science is in fact in its infancy, than how can we trust that your conclusion that our societies have, as a direct measure, affected climate change is nothing more than a political agenda against corporate development?

4-Otherwise, I would have to conclude that you are insufficiently
educated to be able to know when you have been psychologically
manipulated. And that would make you an unreliable reporter....what is the purpose of your e-mail if not to manipulate this reporter into spinning the story YOUR way?

The arena of ideas is to encompass both sides, not simply just yours. People as a whole need to examine what we accept as fact and as theory and learn to differentiate between the two. I am not saying there has been no climate change during the last century, what I am saying is you have quickly accepted a reason, laden with political agenda, as to why it has occurred. Journalism is to be objective and free of influence from ANY special interest group or activist group, including your own.

Thank You.

-Tim Jankowski
maximuspoliticus.blogspot.com

Disgraceful behaviour

I have to concur 100% with Tim Jankowski, the behaviour of this activist brings shame to the whole enviromental lobby group.

Behaviour such as that exibited by Jo will only cause more people to question anything said by the green lobby, I find her email threatening and judging from the comments on many other blogs my opinion is the majority view.

For this person to then gloat about her behaviour on a blog has turned her so called victory into one big own goal for ALL enviromental activists.

Coming from the Netherlands we have a history of allowing freedom of speech and behaviour from this activist would be highlighted and treated with the contempt it deserves.

Joseph
Maastricht
The Netherlands

Well said Joseph ! Jo's

Well said Joseph !

Jo's belligerent behaviour does not create an atmosphere conducive to discussion; which is needed for any element of change to occur. As you say - this is an own goal !

We HAVE to be able to question things in an open manner. Anything less is propaganda !

I wonder if the MMGW lobby have thought what might happen in, say 50 years, if things suddenly start to get much colder ? Those scientists and activists who so ardently supported the theory will be left without a leg to stand on. Any future attempts to engage in discussions or make an observation will be greeted with a closed door. There are a lot of reputations on the line here...and I'm not sure everyone sees it !

Global warming may be happening. But by far the most pressing problem facing this planet is over-population. Worry about that before you worry about climatic cycles which are largely beyond our control.

Jo is the dangerous one!

Well said to the above posters! Its a dangerous world that we live in when half cocked crackpots can alter what the media reports for consumption by the rest of us. Despite much scientific fact to the contrary to which Jo and her crowd dont subscribe, they would rather plug our ears and cover our eyes than let us hear and see the facts because they dont meet their own beliefs. I believe this was done before when proponents like Jo espoused the 'World is Flat' and put to death those that disagreed as heretics.

I'm appalled at Jo's behaviour ...

... but I'm even more appalled by the BBC caving in to her pressure, and I have rung them to tell them so.

The fact is that the global temperature has not risen since 1998. Jo may not like that fact, but no matter how loudly she (and her friends) shout, it will not change that fact.

Human beings have been on this planet for the minutest fraction of its life. How can we possibly say this, or that, is 'normal', or good or bad for the earth. The only thing we can say is that global warming might not be a good thing for humans.

BBC is corrupt

The BBC i obviously run by fools. The story should have been substanciated. To change an article in this wa shows that the BBC is not to be trusted. The New York Times and USA today are simple perversions of the truth.

They cannot be believed in any matters of importance.

climate change is just weather

I fully agree with the above posters saying Jo is wrong..

Jo, your a silly one.

If the beeb is agreeing with the skeptics, this is a good thing isnt it? I mean, every other broadcasting company, vehicle manufacturer, supermarket, even washing detergent maker with their smaller bottles and child voice-overs "every child deserves a clean environment" or words to that effect - basically, almost all companies that we as the public are customers of, are saying the oposite of what the skeptics are saying.. so.. wouldnt that make the skeptics the minority.

And how can You think that people may read the title "Global temperatures 'to decrease'", and suddenly start thinking that its okay to buy big cars etc, You are a very patronising lady to think such a thing. Besides, most of Joe Public fully beleive that global warming is down to humans, so your logic is a little wrong. Its funny, cause You seems to have the belief that the rest of us have been fed, yet You actually believe it to be true. Its all hype, hype to make us go out and by hybrid cars and other 'greener' means of living.

It is true that we effect the environment, but not such that temporatures rise as they have; the effects that we have affect Us more than they do the environment, if you dont count deforestation etc etc. We normally ruin our own health rather than the health of the planet (asthma etc..).

Anyway, my beleif is that the changes in the earths climate is down to the sun and other astral bodies, its very arrogant to think its our fault.

As a final point - why are more airline companies being made, why was T5 built, why are Flight companies not cutting down.. why o why o why, if global warming is our fault. Please dear Jo, please let me know this.

Jo, kindly refrain from writing to the BBC, we can do that ourselves - we can just write to Points Of View. After all, we ALL pay for the TV license, not just you m'dear.

A

Scientific debate

Scientific debate? Jo Abbess has apparently heard of it and strongly disapproves.
Lucky for us people such as Jo have brought humanity to it's current level of scientific understanding. Where would we be today if we just allowed any bit of reporting of facts to get to the great unwashed masses? Can you imagine the consequences?
Jo follows in the footsteps of leaders like those in China, Iran, Saudi Arabia and so many others that "shape" the information allowed to citizens in order to keep them on the path of "emerging truth".
I say Brava!

What is so worrying is Jo's

What is so worrying is Jo's outrage. She seems to be more angry that Harrabin has strayed from the orthodox path than anything else.
How dare he commit thoughtcrime in this way. No wonder she demanded the whole thing be filed in a memory hole asap.

When I came to believe MMCC is a crock of you know what, it was the attitude and unreasonableness of people like Jo that was the deciding factor.

And you call yourself a Christian

Ms Abbess,

Your behaviour is of the kind that gives religion such a bad name in some quarters.

You call yourself a Christian, yet you lie repeatedly in your emails to Mr Harrabin, and you blackmail him with threats to launch a campaign to discredit him.

Not one fact in all your emails to Mr Harrabin is supported by a link or other references.

Your assertion that the oceans 'have shown gradual and continual warming' is one of your many lies. Here's a bang up to date article on how NASA researchers have found that the oceans AREN'T warming, and in fact are cooling slightly.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88520025

Now that's what's know as 'proof'. But you probably think NASA has 'no expertise in this area'. You've clearly gone way past the point of being open to facts and reasoned debate.

No one I know says the earth isn't warming. The people you call 'skeptics' say that the warming isn't outside the range of previously observed warming. The also say that there's no proof that it's being caused by man-made emmissions of CO2, a claim that is itself easily proved: temperatures have remained stable for ten years, and have now started to fall, while emissions have increased steadily.

Can you provide one shred of evidence to support your claims?

More worrying are your sinister attempts to crush all signs of honest debate. You should be ashamed of yourself.

Fortunately your disgusting behaviour towards Mr Harrabin is now all over the web and the world's media. What little good you think you may have done has been far outweighed by the damage you've done to the 'alarmist' cause, and to the BBC, which despite the initial resistance shown by Mr Harrabin has once again shown that it cannot be trusted to report impartially on this important and complex subject.

Many people have latched on to global warming alarmism as a substitute for religious belief. The fact that your own alarmist views, your intolerance of dissent and fascistic attempts to destroy honest debate are themselves framed by your religious beliefs is truly frightening.

Astonishing

First, let me say that I do not believe the "catastrophic anthropogenic climate change" theory. This is for two reasons. The first is that the theory is, at first glance, so highly improbable. The idea that a gas such as CO2, which accounts for such a tiny amount of the atmosphere, can cause such massive changes as are being claimed, seems to me to be highly unlikely and therefore requires very strong and robust evidence to support it.

The second reason is that such evidence simply seems to be missing. What evidence there is seems very uncertain and open to a good deal of doubt.

There is another (admittedly far lesser) reason - the behaviour of many promoters of the "climate change" theory. This is exemplified by "Jo" and her attempts to silence any dissent from her point of view. I find her behaviour absolutely astonishing. Rightly or wrongly, she comes across more like a religious fanatic than a person who has reached a reasoned and considered opinion.

I imagine that this little episode will make anyone who believes in anthropogenic climate change cringe with embarassment. If you wish to convince people that there is a real problem, and further to convince them of the necessity of making considerable sacrifices to counter the problem, I would suggest evidence and reasoned argument might be more effective than browbeating, thinly veiled threats and a refusal to countenance the reporting of dissenting views.

All Around the world....

I've just been watching some American TV stations via the web and some clips of TV programes recorded on YouTube regarding Jo's emails to the BBC.

Someone said that Jo's behaviour had put the case of MMGW back 30 years. I wouldn't be so conservative ! More like 50 years !

It's remarkable....but Jo has indeed achieved the oft vaunted 'Step Change' in thinking.....but a step backwards..not forwards.....and now a significantly larger number of people see Climate Activists as no more than religious zealots who decry anyone who disagrees with them and refuse to discuss or explain their logic in reasoned debates, providing proof. Offering instead the words 'I'm right...just believe me'

Thanks Jo, as a result of your actions we climate sceptics have got the focus of the discussion where we want it, on the possible fact that climate change is NOT caused by man or CO2 !